The Future of Labor

I read an article this morning that presents a disturbing picture of enormous pressures on labor that can be expected in the next couple of decades.   It will affect all aspects of society deeply.  The combination of demographics, i.e. aging workforce, automation that will consume lower income and middle class jobs, and a consequently growing in-equality, will place pressure on society, government, and businesses.

https://reconnomics.com/2018/05/05/bain-has-seen-the-future-of-labor-and-its-not-pretty/

If correct, this report indicates as many as 50% of labor jobs will be negatively affected by automation.  Only 20% will benefit from the delivery of new technology to the market, and those who benefit will be at the top of the food chain and will benefit from enhanced productivity.

The article addresses how business, and governments will need to react to the changes, and how investors should view the macro trends indicated.  I want to focus on the implication for families, for the next generation.

Businesses will do their thing to maximize profit and keep costs down, and therefore cause ever increasing pressure on labor.  Government will respond by becoming an even bigger customer; buying infrastructure, and borrowing and taxing more to make up for a diminishing middle-class.  Consequently in-equality will increase in the USA.

Families must encourage education for their children.  Being left behind, means very low-end service jobs.  As factory workers, and warehouse workers, transportation and other middle class labor is forced out of jobs by automation, they will necessary squeeze low-end services, thus pushing pay down further.  Value is going to be in jobs that cannot be automated, such as required services, in health care, engineering, legal, and in financial management.   The importance of investment in time, energy and money in securing appropriate training and education will never be greater.   In the past one could work their way up from the factory floor to management.  One could open a restaurant and through trial and error figure out how to deliver a better product and build a life-style.   The journey today and in the coming decades without education will be a lot more difficult and the competition will be extraordinary.

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