I read an article this morning that presents a disturbing picture of enormous pressures on labor that can be expected in the next couple of decades.   It will affect all aspects of society deeply.  The combination of demographics, i.e. aging workforce, automation that will consume lower income and middle class jobs, and a consequently growing in-equality, will place pressure on society, government, and businesses.

https://reconnomics.com/2018/05/05/bain-has-seen-the-future-of-labor-and-its-not-pretty/

If correct, this report indicates as many as 50% of labor jobs will be negatively affected by automation.  Only 20% will benefit from the delivery of new technology to the market, and those who benefit will be at the top of the food chain and will benefit from enhanced productivity.

The article addresses how business, and governments will need to react to the changes, and how investors should view the macro trends indicated.  I want to focus on the implication for families, for the next generation.

Businesses will do their thing to maximize profit and keep costs down, and therefore cause ever increasing pressure on labor.  Government will respond by becoming an even bigger customer; buying infrastructure, and borrowing and taxing more to make up for a diminishing middle-class.  Consequently in-equality will increase in the USA.

Families must encourage education for their children.  Being left behind, means very low-end service jobs.  As factory workers, and warehouse workers, transportation and other middle class labor is forced out of jobs by automation, they will necessary squeeze low-end services, thus pushing pay down further.  Value is going to be in jobs that cannot be automated, such as required services, in health care, engineering, legal, and in financial management.   The importance of investment in time, energy and money in securing appropriate training and education will never be greater.   In the past one could work their way up from the factory floor to management.  One could open a restaurant and through trial and error figure out how to deliver a better product and build a life-style.   The journey today and in the coming decades without education will be a lot more difficult and the competition will be extraordinary.

 

New Home

 

Quietly with enjoyment morning alone

I sit and experience the breathing of our new home

 

The fireplace the furnace the sunlight

The shadows as well as the sun bright

 

The quiet sense of accomplished task

Of muscle weary relaxed at last

 

Funny all there is to do

When your home is so new

 

Think of everything you use in a day

You will not remember it all anyway

 

It’s the little things like tools, stools and tape

It’s chip clips, and paper and band aids for a scrape

 

Then the boxes and packages and Styrofoam

Piles of stuff to be unpacked to make a house a home

 

The little balls of Styrofoam never leave

They escape as they dance and weave

 

Already there’s a junk drawer just a few days in

It’s inevitable I suppose, but it makes your head spin

 

Well it’s been fun and funny and tiring too

But happy to move here as long as I’m with you!

 

 

Pen and Paper

A heavy pen and paper white

Thoughtfully compose and make it right

Like poets of ancient times

Working out thoughts and careful rhymes

Mistakes you could readily find

Or hesitance and change of mind

The flow of ink across the pages

Captured thought and texture for the ages

The beauty of being outside while I write

Birds of prey wheel in flight

Ospreys hunting for their meal

Like search for words to make us feel

More often failing and trying again

So cross it out and try again

Discipline of mind and thought

Perfect words and phrases sought

Overcoming this minds futility

Pen and papers the perfect utility

 

Karaoke

I sit and nurse a drink and watch with amusement

I think that human history is resplendent with refinement in fermentation

Drink forever a magnificent fuel for social engagement

Surely the history of and primal need for song must parallel that of drink

But what damage could you do around the campfire, or hearth I wonder

While I listen to friends in low places, where whiskey drowns, and beer chases, I ponder

That a century ago, Edison brings us the microphone along with lights

And the Japanese, naturally industrialize it all

I can only hope everyone here has had enough to drink

And that Jimmy Buffett forgives me when I lay waste to Margaretville

It has come to my turn at the karaoke mike…

I blew out my flip flop, stepped on a pop top;
Cut my heel, had to cruise on back home.
But there’s booze in the blender…

 

Pick-up Baseball

 

Just a lad of about five or six, mom said enough, now go play

I knew of a park two blocks away

I rode my bike, dad had just taught me how to ride without training wheels

Not really a park, it was land carved out under the power lines

Early summer, and there are kids gathering around a makeshift field

Rocky base path worn in the grass, nothing more

A fence that define the edge of the so-called park

Some swings and a monkey bar in the corner that no one paid attention to

A cylinder or two of huge concrete pipe, that judging by graffiti someone cared about

Hey kid, do you want to play baseball?

Sure….

Are you left or right handed?

I don’t know? 

They toss me a ball I try to catch with my left, drop it and throw it back

They said I was right handed, and gave me a glove for my left-hand, which confused me

A bat was tossed, and an older boy and older girl picked up sides

Nervous I waited and was finally picked last and sent to right field

But that didn’t make sense either I was on the left side of the field where they told me to stand

I loved playing, I loved that they figured out how to make up teams, and everyone was welcome, this game of baseball was incredible.

We played there for a few years, as I got older, I eventually was picking teams

I was telling a new kid where to stand in right field

No-one really cared who won, only that we had the joy of playing for hours

I played until I hit a homerun over the fence and clobbered a car one day

It was time to move to a bigger field, wear uniforms and play a game I came to love 

 

 

I heard the Deacon at church on Friday talk about what Christ’s death on the cross and subsequent resurrection meant to him.  He talked about how we are taught that Christ died for our sins, and through his resurrection we may be forgiven, thus opening the gates of heaven to us sinners.  He rejects this simple transactional view for one that is more transformational.  That God did not need a sacrifice by his son to forgive his children.  God could do so out of love as he pleases, and its human hubris that interprets the events in this transactional way.  I think this is where he was going, but I stopped listening and started thinking on my own… that we may think of the demonstration and example of Christ’s sacrifice, in the context of proving that a life commitment to loving others, to doing good, and of humility and sacrifice can be extended through one’s life, through death, and lives on forever in a spirit and form that remains transformational today.  The legacy of Christ and his love lives on today two millenniums later and has spread around the world. This is an example that says that we can transform beyond our human frailties into a spirit and legacy that lives on.  I believe that this is the true message of Easter.  That how we live defines, much more than how we interact with our complex worlds, but how we influence others, and how that influences others, and it extends through generations.  So, we are influenced by Christ’s teachings today, you are influencing today your friends, your families, your casual acquaintances and even potential enemies, and they will influence others in a geometric sequence of legacy that extends on forever.  So, he is risen, and he influences us today, and we should remember always that we are doing the same.  That we are too a transformational influence in our worlds.  What would you like that influence to be?  One of love I hope!

 

Why is it difficult sometimes to find tranquility

Is it beyond our meager mental ability

 

We journey through our limited time

With useless worry of future on our mind

 

In the sometimes lonely, in mid of night

We feel futility of struggle and fight

 

We realize solemnity of existence

In the limits of time’s distance

 

Some would pray for relief

To an unseen God, or mysterious belief

 

We seek kindred spirits to share

Our anxiety and honesty if we dare

 

Or we find comfort in a drink

So to sleep and not to think

 

Maybe tranquility and peace, we will reach

On some faraway shore and sandy beach

 

Or in our loves and heart’s mind at night

We find our soul’s truth and know it’s right

Over the course of many articles and some poems, I’ve tried to convey some of what I feel is accumulative wisdom about life and thought that if considered and followed should enhance the probability of finding success in life and in business.  I’ve pressed the need for perspective, of being curious, of being passionate and willing to take risks and of course the need for self-evaluation.  To know your own capabilities and be honest about it, and then to stretch and climb the mountains in front of you.  Create a life-long passion for learning and accomplishment.

What I’ve not yet talked about is “luck”.  I’ve written about life’s lottery, which is a bit of luck in where you were born, what country your parents managed to get you to, and how the sacrifices of our ancestors bring you to a point in your life where you have opportunities for success.

Most people get some break in life, an opportunity that presents itself, in part out of luck… Many will never have the perspective to see the opportunity, they will only see the problem.  Some will be too timid to explore it, or if they do, will realistically lack the talent or passion to exploit it.   However, getting that opportunity is something of a bit of chance, of luck, and we can increase prospects of this occurring by expanding our network, expanding our experiences, and being open to seeing change as a potential opportunity. Furthermore, be ready!  Develop the wisdom and capability to respond to opportunity when it knocks… and then work hard and be persistent.  Climb that mountain!  If you don’t, you’ll find that there are so many other talented people that are also out there looking for their chance, as they go by you.

Be Lucky!

I know I have been!

The following article was an interesting take on the dirty secret about success… luck!

http://www.bbc.com/capital/story/20180309-your-hard-work-doesnt-actually-pay-off

 

 

A Field of Black and White

 

Enthroned on a field of black and white

To do strategic battle for what is right

 

For the moment queen is close at my side

Evaluating all the risks arrayed on the other side

 

Bounding and maneuvering knights

Travel forward looking for fights

 

Pawns inch forward and sacrifice

Too easily their least-valued lives

 

Bishops dressed in religious garbs

Cast sideways glances with sharp barbs

 

Rooks late to battle, and castle protect

Reserves for later power project

 

The queen flits easily forward and back

She manages intrigue and leads the attack

 

A game of thrones with a hobbled king

Moving nearly like a pawn, with little sting

 

Two dimensions and so many options

Think ahead many thoughtful notions

 

View the field from on high

As a bird would float and fly

 

Lure your adversary into a trap today

Or surprise with a brilliant unexpected play

 

A game of war, of strategy and of might

Played on a field of black and white

 

I’ve written about how great and growing lives are driven by a relentless curiosity, see “Loving Curiosity” and “Of Perspective and Shading” and its value in how we navigate life. True to “Thinking About it” and “Keep it Simple” this musing is about the value of risk taking in one’s life journey.  I have expressed a philosophy that includes truthful self-evaluation, seeing the journey ahead of you from the vantage point of perspective, understanding that clarity is not possible, that life and futures are always shaded.  I encourage decision making based on perspective, but also based on evaluations of options where the fewest of assumptions are necessary to see successful outcome, and yet I’d be remiss if I didn’t add the need for risk taking.  Every day in a life has inherent risks.  We may be prudent, we may seek to avoid failure, and danger, but it is ever present.  Randomness and chance both play a role in our lives, in good ways and in bad.  In a way circumstances are a part of every life that we can either embrace and “Dancing with Circumstance”, or we can spend our days decrying to each other the consequences of circumstance.  So too, our decisions and our path includes always options of relatively greater or lesser safety.  I believe that if we are curious, and investigative, if we are able to see past the risk with perspective, if we keep it simple, and think about it, then we can master too the risks of our lives and world.  All interesting stories involve taking a risk.  As my grandfather used to always say, “take a chance, Columbus did” … I’m sure he meant it in a fun and casual way, but I see those words differently in the passage of time.  Quite possibly it was his way of saying that in all life, in every game of cards, or game of life there are choices and risks.  But there is no great story, there is no great wins, and no great loves without taking a risk; and when you do, do so with passion, and know very well that “Passion is a Dragon”.