Russia, and by that I mean Vladimir Putin is unwittingly accomplishing two things in the matter of weeks which would otherwise have taken a decade or more.
One is the unification and strengthening of NATO. This is clear and playing out in the united front being shown as defenses are strengthened. Germany committing to 2.5% GDP expenditure in defense spending is extraordinary. The threat from Russia is now so very clear and apparent. This has been written about and spoken about quite clearly in the last two weeks, and requires no further discussion other than to say that the Trump administration weakened NATO alliance, and Putin corrected that weakness in just a few weeks.
The second impact Putin unwittingly caused is a bit less obvious, the rise of China. I’ll make the case for it here. His actions, will result quite obviously in economic disaster for Russia, while allowing a great acceleration for China. Europe will be slowed by energy issues, and dealing with millions of refugees for another year or more. China seeing the challenge it is for Russia to take over Ukraine via land invasion, will think twice and maybe thrice about threatening invasion of Taiwan, an island not so easily accessed.
If China gives up its obsession with Taiwan, they then can reduce their defense expenditures and double down on economic growth, presenting an alternative to US and Europe for second and third world development. China will seek to secure critical natural resources through either the raw materials and/or the processing of those materials… they are doing so today for critical battery technology that is needed for electric vehicles. This market will grow as threats to oil have caused price increases and the world seeks greener power. China will emerge very rapidly as a superpower, and will distance themselves from Russia once it serves their needs to do so… which is after Russia bloodies itself against the patriotism of a democratic Ukraine.
Putin, inadvertently strengthened NATO and paved the way for China to accelerate their position as a superpower… interesting.