Category Archives: Blog

Did you watch last night’s episode?

 

I remember that it was common to talk about the last episode of the popular television show the next morning around the coffee pot, or amongst friends.  That just doesn’t occur anymore.  There is no proverbial water cooler, nor community coffee pot, nor for that matter episodes to discuss.  Rather we stream, so we talk the merits of one series over another, and what season are you up to?   Maybe Game of Thrones was the last of an era of episodically watched shows?  And it jumped the shark too!
When was the last time you said, did you watch last night’s episode?

Happy Super Bowl Sunday! – Monday’s Reaction

Yes the last year has been full of drama, full of surprises, full of challenges!  But today is Super Bowl Sunday, and it is the strangest ever as the crowds will be smaller, but still loud!  The hometown team for the first time playing at home in the Super Bowl.  The Greatest Of All Time up against the Kid that will become the Next GOAT!   Exciting, fun, and something rare and new.

My prediction:  Bucs win over the Chiefs by a score of 27 to 24.  And surprisingly with all the talk of offensive prowess, the defense will play a critical role.  The Buccaneers defense has been playing ever better and they will find a way to slow down the Chiefs potent offensive weapons, and give TOM BRADY enough field time to move the ball and score points.

Close game, but a Bucs Win!

MONDAY:   I was so wrong… not a close game… because great defense by the Bucs, and for that I was right,  defense played the critical role.  They more than slowed the Chiefs, they held them to just 3 field goals!  Todd Bowles (Bucs Defensive Coordinator) is amazing!  And Tom Brady wins his 5th Super Bowl MVP… Wow! 

Bucs win: 31 to 9 

All Politics is Local…

I was thinking about a statement, which is most associated with the great Speaker of the House in the Ronald Reagan era, Tip O’Neil, namely that “All politics is local”  …  even in a presidential election, it is apparent that it is local county and state election officials that determine and certify election results, and in key states this year have upheld the will of the people in the election of Joe Biden as the next President of these United States.  Many, of these local officials are Republicans, that have held firm to the law, to our democratic principles despite withering pressure from Trump and his campaign, and local pressure, including death threats from Trump supporters.

These true patriots are not bending to threats, to conspiracy theories and to the pressure of the people they have had long professional associations.  All politics is local… and we are fortunate that the founders of this country structured our federal election system the way they did, so that it was so big and diverse that we would have to work with each other to be successful, so that all the individual states of our country would have a say, so that local officials would provide for, represent and support the wisdom of the local politic.

I was also thinking that we are fortunate for the County Public Health officials that are holding the line, without adequate Federal, and many times State Political leader support.  They have been threatened for delivering public health advice based on data and science for the benefit of all us.   It takes brave people to do their job when it is unpopular.

Our institutions are working, our local leadership has shown commitment to data, science, to democracy and the law.  What is wrong with people that threaten those that are doing their job for our benefit to the best of their ability?  What is wrong with Washington GOP Leaders that refuse to support the local election officials for fear of a president on his way out of office?   A president who by the way, lost an election when down-ballot Republicans did very well… it says the people voted this president out because he is not what we want or need… this election was not a repudiation of conservative policy and principles. It was a repudiation of Donald Trump.

We should see local officials doing their job for democracy, or for public health as heroes… and show distain for our National Republican leadership.   Especially the loser on his way out. Thankfully, all politics are still local.

The Pursuit of Happiness

I’m reading a book called Founding Principles, written by Thomas Ricks.  Ricks studied our founding fathers, with emphasis on the first four Presidents of Washington, Adams, Jefferson, and Madison and what they read, what they thought about, and how they were educated.  They were all heavily influenced by the Greek and Roman philosophies, politics, and mores.  They also had a heavy dose of Scottish Enlightenment.

What is amazing is that they not only thought deeply about the past, but they also thought deeply about the future, and not just their own future, but the future of a Republic they were creating.  They differ from us significantly because of their emphasis in virtue, meaning the desire to look at the people, the country in public life over one’s own self-interest.  They were aware that checks and balances needed to be in place to force different parts of the country and different people to work together.  The notion of compromise was important, the notion of checks on self-dealing and corrupt behavior was important.  Gridlock as it may happen in our current system was a feature to ensure all sides are heard.  State managed elections and the electoral college was brilliant.  It means there are no levers to invalidate an election at the federal level.  Furthermore, candidates need to consider all the states and their counties, not just the most populous cities.

But going back to what I considered amazing… The concept of time they held.  They valued ideas and brought them forward from a thousand years before, and thought about the future in the context of hundreds and thousands of years hence.  They were far from perfect, but they sought to build a country and a system that could not just last, but evolve with its people.   These were extraordinary men with diverse talents, that together figured this thing out called United States of America.

There have been many points of divisiveness in our country, and racial prejudices and the stain of slavery were the most significant.  We fought a civil war over this, and frankly it still echoes in our culture and our institutions and has been called upon, as of late, to encourage and stoke divisiveness again.

We must think about what connects us, not what divides us, we must as our founders did, think about what our nation will be in the long-run, it is each generation’s responsibility to think and act on the future, not the next four years, but the next hundred years. This requires vision, this requires, the ability to see into the deep past and understand, and to see into the far future and anticipate.

We the People, need to think about whom we turn to, who and how we educate, and how to ensure social and civil happiness, meaning prosperity.  For as our founders understood, it was the Pursuit of Happiness which gave reason for the precious protection of Life and Liberty.

Election Result Thoughts…

I’ve been thinking about the results of the election last week.  The fact that although Joe Biden won, there really wasn’t a so called blue wave.  The results were narrow, in the sense of 5 million out of around 145 million votes cast.  But it is a clear enough repudiation of DJT in that Biden won, while down ballot Democrats continued to struggle.  This means many split their vote.   It seems to me that people are saying they’ve had enough of Trumps divisiveness, we want political figures to work together, not simply fight.  Furthermore there is a rejection of a completely progressive agenda.  People want a blend.  If you take away the labels, such as socialism and progressiveness and focus on the issues, Americans are remarkably liberal.

Locally in Florida Trump won the majority of the vote because of favorable business regulations and taxes, but a minimum wage increase to 15 over a 5 year period was approved by 62%.  People see this as fair.  It was simply treated as an issue to consider, not a liberal issue as it could have been labeled.  Likewise Amendment 1 was clearly a very right wing initiative to  re-emphasize that you must be a citizen in FL to vote in FL by adding the word “only” … it was a do nothing (except excite rightwing voters) amendment, and it was rejected by voters.

Clearly normal stable leadership is desired.  The experimentation with divisiveness and anger conservatism was rejected.  Furthermore people want to see advancement on issues that make our lives better as well as the lives of our fellow citizens.  If we stop labeling and staking out intractable positions, maybe we can talk about problems, and find compromise solutions.

A beautiful example is healthcare… who in this country would say that we cannot afford for everyone to have healthcare?  I doubt anyone would say it’s not affordable.  Yet  45 million do not have health care insurance, and another 38 million lack adequate healthcare insurance.  Is that a result that we are proud of?  I doubt it.  But we should work to address this issue with ideas from all sides, not trenches, with a no-mans-land in between, from which we lob grenades, arguing over nationalized healthcare… do away with the labels and figure out what makes most sense.  The reason we have employer-based health care is because of an accident of World War 2,  there was a wage freeze mandated, and so providing benefits was the only way companies could differentiate in the competition for human resources, so we landed there.  Is that the best solution when there is an economic downturn?  I think not.

Sensible conversations about issues is needed.  Sensible problem-solving is what Americans voted for.  Sensible leadership is what we all desire.   Stop labeling each other!

 

The Wisdom of Our Founders…

Donald Trump gave a most un-American speech last night.  He attempted to undermine democracy, to disenfranchise voters with baseless claims of fraud.  To claim that he can not lose, if only legal votes are counted, while undermining the hard work, the diligent work of election workers that are on the front-lines of making democracy work.  Claiming that mail-in ballots are fraudulent without basis.  These are words of a dictator. Words that could only be labeled as un-American.
Words matter, but his should be dispersed to the winds, and never be recorded for histories sake, except to illustrate why he had to go, why he must not be part of our government.  It is no surprise to me, it is as I expected.  Will Republican Senators and Congressmen stand up to him?  Someone must, we all must.
Ah the wisdom of our early republic, to have the states manage elections in their own way, so that they may not be invalidated in a sweeping motion of a dictatorial executive.  Now I understand, what was hidden by a previously inconceivable scenario, that could not be seen until Trump arrived with intent to undermine our democracy, and fortunately he finds too few levers in the federal government, for each state manages the election process in their state, and the results are in the form of an electoral college.  Thankfully it is not the popular vote, through a federal election process.  What great wisdom our founders had.
But we must also recognize that some 69 plus million people supported Donald Trump for another 4 years.  Their issues and their worries must be respected.  They are worried, I believe, about the impact of socialist tendencies of the left-wing of the Democratic party.  It is vital for the process of uniting our country both that Joe Biden wins, but also that he and Kamala Harris hold socialist tendencies at bay.  We can get there but we have a long way to go to a future where we can work together for the common good of all Americans, even DJT and his family.

Biden’s Plans Result in a Better Economic Outlook than Trump’s Plans

Many poles have indicated that Americans believe that Trump is better for the Economy than Biden.   This is largely due to the continued extraordinary claims Trump has made about the success of his economy pre-COVID, and the recovery underway. In fact, he claims to have “built the best economy ever”.   These claims may be persuasive for some, but are not factual.  His first three years (pre-COVID) indicate a growth rate of 2.5%.  This is middle of the pack in historical performance.   However, the real question in front of us at this time, with an election just a month away, is whose policies would be better for the US economy in the coming years?

A highly respected and independent source of economic analysis and modeling is Moody Analytics.    They have carefully modeled four scenarios:

  1. A Biden win with Democratic Congress (Blue line)
  2. A Trump win with Republican Congress (Red line)
  3. A Biden win with split-Congress (Dash-blue)
  4. A Trump win with split-Congress (Dash-red

The results show that a Biden win with Democratic Congress is the best case scenario for the US economy, and the worst case scenario is a Trump win with Republican Congress.  The full article can be found via this link, it is definitely worth the read. https://www.moodysanalytics.com/-/media/article/2020/the-macroeconomic-consequences-trump-vs-biden.pdf

The summary economic results can be found in these two charts extracted from the article:

My takeaways from this article include the following:

  1. Biden’s policies includes more spending, but generates faster growth, and with low interest rates per FED policy, results in a manageable debt, and later-year growth in economy and thereby tax recovery.  In 2024, a Biden-Dem sweep yields approximately $1 Trillion in addition GDP which is 4.8% better than a Trump-Rep sweep model.
  2. Biden’s policies benefit the low and middle-income households with lower taxes and more services at the expense of wealthy households and large corporations.
  3. Trump’s polices will result in slower growth and less jobs, and will benefit the wealthy and corporations due to tax cuts, while increasing costs for most Americans through impact of trade policies, and reduction of services used mostly by low and middle-income households.   Furthermore immigration reductions will impact the growth rate as we approach full employment and the impact of age demographics in the US are felt in the middle of the decade.
  4. The overall economic advantages of a Biden win and Democratic sweep results in a better performing stock market in the long-run because of the improved economy, and spending capacity of middle-income families.  This outweighs the normally expected impact of taxes on the corporations, and wealthy, because the wealthy are not likely to significantly change their spending and corporations will ramp up with the help of low interest rates to meet additional demand, resulting in improved profitability.

I hope this is useful as you consider the facts and policy differences of the two candidates for President.

Trump, the Anti-Commander-in-Chief

You know, I was so disgusted when I initially heard that Trump was not attending a visit to the cemetery in France to commemorate the end of World War I and importantly to honor the 1800 United States Marines that died in battle at Belleau Wood who are interned in the Aisne-Marne American Cemetery near Paris.  This was November 2018. Now the reports and the quotes from that time are even more disgusting and sickening.  He would not go to the cemetery, not just because of the rain.  At the time it was said that the Marine 1 could not fly, and the Motorcade would not be possible.   These were lies.  The reality is that it would be bad for his hair, and as he was quoted as saying, “Why should I go there, they were a bunch of losers”… Losers to die for their country, to fight and die bravely.
Those of you who continue to support this president, please know exactly who he is.  He does not respect our military, he does not honor our wounded veterans and fallen soldiers, he is a coward and lacks any semblance of empathy and honor.   If he does not have empathy for families of our fallen soldiers, and finds wounded veterans at parades as disgusting, and his opinion is that only losers and suckers serve in the military, then he is not eligible and not qualified to be our commander-in-chief.  He is the anti-CIC.
See the article in The Atlantic: https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/09/trump-americans-who-died-at-war-are-losers-and-suckers/615997/

Reprinted from this website, November 2018:

INCONVENIENT, LOGISTICS THEY SAID…

 

 

They Died at Belleau

 

Toward the guns they ran
All patriots to the last man
Dying as a million bullets flew
Fighting in the woods of Belleau
A century ago, the great war
They came to fight from afar
Inconvenienced in a great way
1800 died in the woods that day
Yet today’s leader wouldn’t face the rain
So, he sent others to salute without shame
An inconvenient 100-mile motorcade
To lay a wreath for those still there today