The Optimist’s Shadow
Eighty percent chance of rain,
but it might not.
Seventy percent chance of pain,
but it might not.
Sixty percent chance of division,
but it cannot.
Fifty percent chance of revision,
but it will not.
Forty percent chance of caring
but does it matter.
Thirty percent chance of waring,
and this will matter.
Twenty percent chance of sunshine,
and this will make it clearer;
the optimist’s shadow is hard to find,
and a winter of discontent is ever nearer.
There is no doubt now that Republican Party is lost. It has become the Party of fealty to Donald Trump. The test for participation in the party is support of the big lie, that the election was stolen from Donald Trump, and that the insurrection wasn’t a coup attempt, but was a protest to uphold the democratic rights of the people. Witness the ousting of Liz Cheney, and the booing of Mitt Romney. Further Mitch McConnell has said that the party’s stated purpose is to resist all Democratic led legislation. They will not negotiate. The Republican party has no intent to participate in our American Government, no intent to operate in a legislative way addressing problems and seeking solutions. The Republican Party is solely about returning to power in Congress, to do so they are perpetuating the lie that Biden stole the election. They are about the cult of personality, and they will seek all allies they can find, even if it is white supremacists. There appears to be no shame, no embarrassment that is too much.
The Democrats are being pulled further left, with the intent of redefining our capital system. Instead of guaranteeing fairness in opportunity, guaranteeing equity in outcomes drives us to a culture of dependency underwritten by big government. Spending is needed, but not at the proposed levels. Not all problems are solved with tax and spend, and certainly new problems will be created. I think we can all agree that we need investment in our future, but in a meaningful and productive way, not in giveaways to those that don’t need and, or don’t value that it is other’s money and hard work from who they are gaining benefits.
We need a third party, one that is interested in law and order, supportive of our democratic principles including voting rights and justice. A party that believes in ensuring equal opportunities for all, a strong national defense, as well as leadership in the world, while getting out of people’s lives. We need a fiscally conservative problem solving governing party, one that can moderate the extreme left policies and plans as well as the extreme right bias. Problem solving, not name calling is what is needed. A strong party in the middle will bring both Democrats and Republicans to a problem solving middle. Coalitions may happen, but these can happen only through compromise.
Compromise is a good word. Fighting and extreme positions at the exclusion of solving problems are a result of failures in understanding the purpose of government.
As the Republicans devolve into a party of grievances and power grabbing, we need an alternative to the Democratic Party that will actually participate in the legislative process. This is good for democracy, and good for the American People.
He amazes, he seems to defy gravity and good sense, he leaves us aghast and exhausted with his hypocrisy, but it is a glorious hypocrisy, one worth watching and learning from!
These are the thoughts that come to mind as I was watching Mitch McConnell’s (MM) speech just after he had voted to acquit Trump for incitement of an insurrection. MM is the politician’s politician, and as such is worth listening carefully to what he was saying. Within the same day, within hours, he defends Trump by holding his Republican caucus together to acquit, then convicts him in words of being “practically and morally responsible” for the insurrection, the damage, the deaths, and the attack on the constitutional duties of congress upholding our democracy. He says Trump has not gotten away with it yet. Suggesting that there is Department of Justice consequences for his actions.
MM acquittal decision was based on the admittedly questionable (by MM himself) constitutional argument that someone who no longer holds office cannot be impeached, because the penalty of removal from office is not possible. And if it is impeachments purpose to prevent someone from holding future office, then he argues that impeachment could be applied to any non-office holding citizen. The argument is specious and simultaneously an amazing high wire act.
What he is doing, is worth noting. He is clearing his conscience by attacking Trump in his speech, but that is a minor point. He is giving his party the narrowest, high wire argument to support their reasons for acquittal… while at the same time making it clear to donors, people that write big checks.. .that it is OK to come back to the Republican party. They they will be cleaning this up and he, MM will be taking back the GOP from Trump.
Wow, what a high wire act… gives hope, gives danger, and entertains. Frankly, I’m OK if there is no net if he falls.
I was thinking about a statement, which is most associated with the great Speaker of the House in the Ronald Reagan era, Tip O’Neil, namely that “All politics is local” … even in a presidential election, it is apparent that it is local county and state election officials that determine and certify election results, and in key states this year have upheld the will of the people in the election of Joe Biden as the next President of these United States. Many, of these local officials are Republicans, that have held firm to the law, to our democratic principles despite withering pressure from Trump and his campaign, and local pressure, including death threats from Trump supporters.
These true patriots are not bending to threats, to conspiracy theories and to the pressure of the people they have had long professional associations. All politics is local… and we are fortunate that the founders of this country structured our federal election system the way they did, so that it was so big and diverse that we would have to work with each other to be successful, so that all the individual states of our country would have a say, so that local officials would provide for, represent and support the wisdom of the local politic.
I was also thinking that we are fortunate for the County Public Health officials that are holding the line, without adequate Federal, and many times State Political leader support. They have been threatened for delivering public health advice based on data and science for the benefit of all us. It takes brave people to do their job when it is unpopular.
Our institutions are working, our local leadership has shown commitment to data, science, to democracy and the law. What is wrong with people that threaten those that are doing their job for our benefit to the best of their ability? What is wrong with Washington GOP Leaders that refuse to support the local election officials for fear of a president on his way out of office? A president who by the way, lost an election when down-ballot Republicans did very well… it says the people voted this president out because he is not what we want or need… this election was not a repudiation of conservative policy and principles. It was a repudiation of Donald Trump.
We should see local officials doing their job for democracy, or for public health as heroes… and show distain for our National Republican leadership. Especially the loser on his way out. Thankfully, all politics are still local.
I’ve been thinking about the results of the election last week. The fact that although Joe Biden won, there really wasn’t a so called blue wave. The results were narrow, in the sense of 5 million out of around 145 million votes cast. But it is a clear enough repudiation of DJT in that Biden won, while down ballot Democrats continued to struggle. This means many split their vote. It seems to me that people are saying they’ve had enough of Trumps divisiveness, we want political figures to work together, not simply fight. Furthermore there is a rejection of a completely progressive agenda. People want a blend. If you take away the labels, such as socialism and progressiveness and focus on the issues, Americans are remarkably liberal.
Locally in Florida Trump won the majority of the vote because of favorable business regulations and taxes, but a minimum wage increase to 15 over a 5 year period was approved by 62%. People see this as fair. It was simply treated as an issue to consider, not a liberal issue as it could have been labeled. Likewise Amendment 1 was clearly a very right wing initiative to re-emphasize that you must be a citizen in FL to vote in FL by adding the word “only” … it was a do nothing (except excite rightwing voters) amendment, and it was rejected by voters.
Clearly normal stable leadership is desired. The experimentation with divisiveness and anger conservatism was rejected. Furthermore people want to see advancement on issues that make our lives better as well as the lives of our fellow citizens. If we stop labeling and staking out intractable positions, maybe we can talk about problems, and find compromise solutions.
A beautiful example is healthcare… who in this country would say that we cannot afford for everyone to have healthcare? I doubt anyone would say it’s not affordable. Yet 45 million do not have health care insurance, and another 38 million lack adequate healthcare insurance. Is that a result that we are proud of? I doubt it. But we should work to address this issue with ideas from all sides, not trenches, with a no-mans-land in between, from which we lob grenades, arguing over nationalized healthcare… do away with the labels and figure out what makes most sense. The reason we have employer-based health care is because of an accident of World War 2, there was a wage freeze mandated, and so providing benefits was the only way companies could differentiate in the competition for human resources, so we landed there. Is that the best solution when there is an economic downturn? I think not.
Sensible conversations about issues is needed. Sensible problem-solving is what Americans voted for. Sensible leadership is what we all desire. Stop labeling each other!
The Great Contest Is Over
And when the celebration comes to an end
And it’s time to clean up the terrible mess
We realize our world will now depend
On how we now converse and address
With each other and messages we will send
To unify and forgive to assure progress
For without such we’ll surely deepen
The divide, anger, and we will regress
To an even more terrible and total end
Defeating the purpose of a great contest
Vote
We have our thoughts and analysis
Of what they said, and histories
Of what they did
And we make our decision
We invest in our choice
We invest in our future
But one of hundreds of million
Who do so, with reason or emotion
And await the outcome
For which,
Too many will say
They are not invested in that future
And more however, will pray
That they are right about that future
Dark Money
A shadow moving across the land
Sowing a crop of bitters for a harvest
To feed something monstrous and dark.
For, if it was pure of motive
Pure of intent, it would not hide
In the shadows, choking the fruits
Intended for innocents,
Who surely will go hungry.
Many poles have indicated that Americans believe that Trump is better for the Economy than Biden. This is largely due to the continued extraordinary claims Trump has made about the success of his economy pre-COVID, and the recovery underway. In fact, he claims to have “built the best economy ever”. These claims may be persuasive for some, but are not factual. His first three years (pre-COVID) indicate a growth rate of 2.5%. This is middle of the pack in historical performance. However, the real question in front of us at this time, with an election just a month away, is whose policies would be better for the US economy in the coming years?
A highly respected and independent source of economic analysis and modeling is Moody Analytics. They have carefully modeled four scenarios:
The results show that a Biden win with Democratic Congress is the best case scenario for the US economy, and the worst case scenario is a Trump win with Republican Congress. The full article can be found via this link, it is definitely worth the read. https://www.moodysanalytics.com/-/media/article/2020/the-macroeconomic-consequences-trump-vs-biden.pdf
The summary economic results can be found in these two charts extracted from the article:
My takeaways from this article include the following:
I hope this is useful as you consider the facts and policy differences of the two candidates for President.
The Bear
He’s looking around, slinking
Always hungry, always thinking
Of a way in, and what he’ll find
For our house is big, but our mind
Is lazy and our attention to the locks
And alarms are as miss-matched socks
So varied and so many ways into our life
He tells another story, a way to cause us strife
Undermining our faith and belief, of what we know
So that in our house, in our minds it starts to snow
And it is we who hibernate, we who give in
To a stinking ugly bear living with us again
As we slumber and dream of past images of glory
While believing in a wretched, bear-given story
We are now as weak as goldilocks, quietly asleep
In what has become his house,
…. for we gave in, without a fight, without a peep